10.6 Model Deployment Sequence
The key system-forming factor that ensures the integrity of any system is the usefulness of its result for an external system (Anokhin, 1980). The deployment procedure for the integrated model is also linked to forming the model on the basis of the external environment’s need for the result produced by the CS.
In socio-economic systems, the objective factors that determine development are the population and its welfare. Based on this determining factor, we propose the following procedure for deployment and forecast planning calculations using the integrated model:
- Demographic and climate models.
The source data for deploying the model are statistical observations for the territory considered as the external environment with which the CS interacts.
The calculation results are:
population size and its settlement across the territory;
temperature, precipitation, and other climatic characteristics of the environment that influence the behavior of the CS and its consumers.
- Model of final consumption of products produced by the CS. Final consumption means consumption of products not used for further production.
The source data for this model are the results from item 1.
The calculation results are expected consumption volumes for the main types of products or resources.
- Model of demand, supply, and production capabilities.
The source data for this model include statistics on sales, production, inventories, production costs (item 4), production capacity, investment plans, and final-consumption forecasts from item 2.
The calculation results are:
equilibrium sales prices for products;
break-even points;
competitiveness domains;
proposals for sales plans.
- Balance models. A set of models that provide quantitatively defined balances of:
productive forces, including means of production and personnel;
production, distribution, and use of gross output;
production loads and capacities;
consumption and production;
input-output relationships, including intersectoral and interterritorial balances;
monetary resources, including accounting balances.
The source data for balance models are:
consumption volumes (item 2);
equilibrium market prices (item 3);
the cost structure for producing individual products.
The calculation results are:
imbalances and economic potentials in the economic structure;
the cost and volumes of production and consumption of products across the structure of CS economic activity;
proposals for production programs.
- Models for effective distribution of results.
Optimization of the distribution of production and sale of the CS product assortment across different markets, taking account of the effectiveness criterion.
Source data:
product cost structure (item 4);
sales volumes and prices in markets (item 3).
Calculation results:
adjustments to production and sales plans;
production and distribution of capital;
proposals for production programs.
- Model for production-capacity development.
The source data are:
imbalances in economic potentials (item 4);
maximum capital-investment volumes (item 5);
resources of the natural-anthropogenic system (item 8).
The calculation results are:
optimal plans for developing production capacities;
identification of capital-investment directions for reconstruction, construction, and modernization;
proposals for investment programs.
- Risk model. This model assesses social, environmental, and techno-economic risks: the degree of probability that sales, production, and investment plans will be fulfilled.
The source data for the calculation are statistics on deviations in the execution of planned indicators.
The calculation result is the degree of probability of achieving the planned result.
- Set of models for the natural-anthropogenic system.
This set determines the residual technical and natural resources used in the production process and their distribution over time and space.
The source data are:
design documentation;
as-built documentation;
operational documentation;
operating statistics.
The result is:
- an assessment of residual resource and its distribution across the system.
By the depth of the mathematical apparatus used, the following sequence for improving model accuracy can be formed:
static models describing linear interrelations between CS indicators;
dynamic models describing dynamics;
agent-based models.
An example of the sequential deployment of an integrated model of a socio-economic system is the project for the regional intersectoral balance of Saint Petersburg, carried out in cooperation with the Committee for Energy and Engineering Support, the Tariff Committee, and SUE Vodokanal of Saint Petersburg in 2015-2017. The methodology for forming and applying this model can be found in the June 2018 issue of the Bulletin on Tariffs of Saint Petersburg (Tariff Committee of Saint Petersburg, 2018). The tasks of this input-output balance project are: performance accounting, assessment, analysis, forecasting, assessment of management decisions, and formation of rational and coordinated development plans.
In 2016-2017, the first economic-mathematical input-output balance model was developed using the municipal infrastructure and energy system of Saint Petersburg as an example (3% of GRP and 18% of household expenditures): the CIE system input-output balance. Consolidated forecasts49 through 2050 were formed. An assessment of the financial and economic activity of the largest economic entities in the sector was conducted. An economic potential of 35 billion rubles per year was identified. In 2018, the aggregate burden on consumers was reduced by 10 billion rubles on an annualized basis. Automation of this instrument and model detailing down to individual consumer and producer objects is under way, with hourly data-collection granularity, making the model dynamic and agent-oriented. Methodological guidelines have been developed, and a draft government resolution on the intra-sectoral balance of the municipal infrastructure and energy system as the core of an information system is being prepared for government review.
In 2018, work began on an economic-mathematical model of the transport-economic balance for passenger transport (13% of GRP and 23% of household expenditures50): TEB. Methodological documents were prepared, balances for 2012-2017 were collected, and a forecast through 2024 was prepared. Work is under way to describe the instrument and train employees of executive public authorities and state carriers. The Committee for Transport Infrastructure Development is considering an extension of TEB with a balance for operation, reconstruction, and construction of the street and road network. The economic potential identified by the transport-economic balance is about 132 billion rubles on an annualized basis and is linked to expansion and optimization of the route network and to increasing the attractiveness of public passenger transport for residents.
In August 2018, the Construction Committee of the Saint Petersburg Administration developed technical specifications for a construction sector balance, including a concept for locating production capacities for construction materials. Technical specifications are being developed to extend the transport-economic balance to the maintenance and development of transport infrastructure.