7.8 Model for scenario calculation of the socio-economic performance of transport projects using the GIH methodology

GIH - Global Infrastructure Hub - is an international organization that works to improve infrastructure investment and development worldwide. It was established in 2014 by the G20 countries to encourage better coordination between governments, private sector stakeholders, and international financial institutions to address the infrastructure investment gap. Its main goals include promoting infrastructure as an asset class, developing sustainable investment practices, and providing a platform for knowledge sharing and capacity building in infrastructure planning and financing. The organization conducts research and analysis on various aspects of infrastructure development, including project documentation assessment, regulatory frameworks, and financing models. It also provides tools and resources to assist governments and investors in identifying and implementing infrastructure projects.

7.8.1 Terms and definitions

Target cities - cities selected to fill the Model with statistical and calculated data, for which the calculation of effects from the implementation of transport projects is available

7.8.2 Purpose of the model

The model is designed to assess the socio-economic effects of investments in transport projects, such as:

  • construction/reconstruction of the road network,
  • construction of a bicycle and pedestrian zone,
  • expansion/improvement of the public transport fleet,
  • creation of a new transport route.

The task of the module is to evaluate the economic, time, environmental, and other effects that will be achieved during the implementation of investment projects in the field of transport.

7.8.3 Input data

A large and domain-specific transport dataset is provided as the model input, and it can be difficult for a non-specialist user to interpret. For this reason, the module distinguishes between mandatory and additional datasets.

Mandatory - the minimum set of data that the user must specify to obtain a result. Additional - an extended set of data used in calculations, which the user can change at their discretion. These datasets are pre-calculated for target cities for each type of project implemented in the Module.

7.8.3.1 Mandatory input data

id Name In calculations S code Unit of measure Comments
1 Settlement loc - string -
2 Investments in the transport sector (GIH) investments C1251 million rubles -
3 Share of public transport in the total passenger traffic share_bus C1255 \(\%\) -
4 Project start year year_st - year -
5 Year of completion of the investment stage of the project (transition to the operational stage) year_end_invest - year -
6 Year of completion of the project evaluation period year_end_eval - year -
7 Calculations based on investments entered (investments) or passenger traffic (share_bus) invest_traffic - value 2 - investments, 1 - passenger traffic

7.8.3.2 Additional input data

id Name In calculations S code Unit of measure Comment
1 Investments go to: only transport, only road, or both invest_bus_road - value 1 - investments are taken into account only in transport, 2 - only in the road, 3 - in transport and road
2 Change in the number of kilometers walked in the first year of project implementation (within the investment scenario) walk_change C1260 \(\%\) -
3 Change in the number of kilometers cycled in the first year of project implementation (within the investment scenario) cycle_change C1264 \(\%\) -
4 Change in the number of kilometers walked for the second and subsequent years of project implementation annually (within the investment scenario) walk_km_grow C1261 \(\%\) -
5 Change in the number of kilometers cycled for the second and subsequent years of project implementation annually (within the investment scenario) cycle_km_grow C1265 \(\%\) -
6 Fleet renewal upgrade_bus - TRUE/FALSE -
7 Type of road project road_proj_type C1256 value 1 - construction, 2 - reconstruction, 3 - not used
8 Length of the road project road_length C1257 km -
9 Number of lanes on the road road_lanes - number -
10 Speed limit speed_limit - km/h -
11 Suburban or city suburban - TRUE/FALSE TRUE - Suburban, FALSE - City
12 Number of transport modes transport_mode - value Car, bus, train, metro/tram, walking, bicycle
13 Discount rate disc_rate - value Central Bank rate * 1.8
14 Crowding level in the base scenario base_crowding - value 1 - no_crowding, 2 - low_crowding, 3 - medium_crowding, 4 - high_crowding
15 Crowding level in the alternative scenario alt_crowding - value No crowding - number of passengers per square meter (100% seats occupied). Low crowding = 1-2 passengers per square meter (or 110-125% seats occupied). Medium crowding = 3-5 passengers per square meter (or 150-170% seats occupied). High crowding = 6-8 passengers per square meter (or 200-230% seats occupied).
16 Bicycle and pedestrian zone cycle_zone - TRUE/FALSE TRUE - construction or reconstruction (depending on road_proj_type), FALSE - not taken into account
17 Number of new routes new_route - value -

7.8.3.3 Refining input data for calculations

id Name S code Unit of measure Comment
1 Average trip distance C1197 km Average trip distance = \(1.2+0.17*\sqrt{City \ Area}\) 10
2 Number of trips per week C1252 trips per week Derived from the transport mobility of the population depending on the size of the city per resident per year 11
3 Passenger traffic, total C1194 thousand passengers per year
4 Share of public transport in the total passenger traffic C1255 % Derived from the number of trips on public passenger transport and the specific weight of transportation in passenger cars depending on their number per 1000 residents 12
5 Average number of kilometers walked per year by 1 resident C1258 km ~ 492 km
6 Average number of kilometers cycled per year by 1 resident C1262 km ~ 169.7 km
7 Change in the number of kilometers walked for the project implementation period annually (within the inertial scenario) C1259 % -
8 Change in the number of kilometers cycled for the project implementation period annually (within the inertial scenario) C1263 % -
9 Average bus capacity - people ~ 100 13
10 Average capacity of an improved bus - people ~ 150
11 Average car capacity - people ~ 1.43
12 Average car capacity on weekdays - people ~ 1.34
13 Average car capacity on weekends - people ~ 1.66
14 Average bus speed - km/h ~ 35 14
15 Average car speed - km/h ~ 40
16 Public transport operating hours per day - hour ~ 14
17 Number of hours in which the rush hour occurs - hour ~ 6.5 15 (from 7 to 10 and from 16:30 to 20)
18 Average annual car mileage - km ~ 20700 16
19 Average annual public transport mileage - km ~ 60000 17
20 Share of revenue from ticket sales - % ~ 93
21 Roadbed width - m ~ 3.75
22 Number of kilometers in one mile - km 1.609
23 Coefficient for increasing bus arrival waiting time due to irregularity of movement - ~ 1.3 18
24 Transport mobility of 1 person per year C1193 trips per year Transport mobility of the population depending on the size of the city per resident per year 19
25 Share of personal transport in the total passenger traffic C1294 % Derived from the number of trips on public passenger transport and the specific weight of transportation in passenger cars depending on their number per 1000 residents 20
26 Change in the number of accidents per year - % -5.3 21
27 Cost of an accident for a car - euro-cent/km 7.2 22
28 Cost of pollution from a car - euro-cent/km 1.14 23
29 Cost of noise pollution for a car - euro-cent/km 0.9 24
30 Cost of \(\mathrm{CO}_{2}\) pollution for a car - euro-cent/km 1.9 25
31 Cost of damage to the environment and ecosystem from the construction or reconstruction of road infrastructure per year - euro-cent/km 9350000 26
32 Total cost of benefit from cycling per mile - $/mile 1.6 27
33 Total cost of benefit from walking per mile - $/mile 3 28
34 Annual car depreciation - rubles 100695 29
35 Annual car insurance - rubles 12938 30
36 Annual fuel for a car - rubles 58747 31
37 Annual car maintenance cost - rubles 22687 32
38 Annual car transport tax - rubles 3075 33
39 Cost of construction of 1 lane of 1 km of roadbed - thousand rubles/km 81651.33 34
40 Cost of reconstruction of 1 lane of 1 km of roadbed - thousand rubles/km 36702.93 35
41 Crowding multipliers: No crowding - value 1.31 - no accumulation of passengers per square meter (100% seats occupied)
42 Crowding multipliers: Low crowding - value 1.46 - low crowding = 1-2 passengers per square meter (or 110-125% seats occupied)
43 Crowding multipliers: Medium crowding - value 1.76 - medium crowding = 3-5 passengers per square meter (or 150-170% seats occupied)
44 Crowding multipliers: High crowding - value 2.21 - high crowding = 6-8 passengers per square meter (or 200-230% seats occupied)
45 Coefficient for new routes - value 0.3
46 Coefficient for reconstruction - value 0.35
47 GDP per capita of the Russian Federation - $ 11786 in 2019
48 GDP per capita of the EU - $ 35183 in 2019
49 GDP per capita of the USA - $ 65734 in 2019
50 GDP per capita of the Netherlands - $ 52876 in 2019

7.8.3.4 Statistical input data series from open sources

id Name S code Unit of measure
1 Population as of January 1 of the current year C013 person
2 Total city area C046 \(km^{2}\)
3 Fixed assets (At the reporting date of the reporting period) C409 million rubles
4 Revenue (For the reporting period) C475 million rubles
5 Net profit (loss) (For the reporting period) C509 million rubles
6 Money income of the population per 1 resident C712 rub./person
7 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) C718 billion rubles
8 Cross rate, ruble-dollar C716 rub./$
9 Regional Consumer Price Index (CPI) C715 %
10 Commercial expenses (For the reporting period) C481 million rubles
11 Administrative expenses (For the reporting period) C483 million rubles
12 Other expenses (For the reporting period) C495 million rubles
13 Cost of sales (For the reporting period) C477 million rubles
14 Current income tax (For the reporting period) C499 million rubles
15 City budget expenditures, including: Budget investments to increase the value of fixed assets C066 million rubles
16 City budget expenditures, including: General government issues C067 million rubles
17 City budget expenditures, including: Servicing state and municipal debt C068 million rubles
18 City budget expenditures, including: National security and law enforcement C069 million rubles
19 City budget expenditures, including: National economy C070 million rubles
20 City budget expenditures, including: Other issues in the field of national economy C071 million rubles
21 City budget expenditures, including: Agriculture and fisheries C072 million rubles
22 City budget expenditures, including: Transport C073 million rubles
23 City budget expenditures, including: Road facilities (road funds) C074 million rubles
24 City budget expenditures, including: Housing and communal services C075 million rubles
25 City budget expenditures, including: Environmental protection C076 million rubles
26 City budget expenditures, including: Education C077 million rubles
27 City budget expenditures, including: Culture, cinematography C078 million rubles
28 City budget expenditures, including: Healthcare C079 million rubles
29 City budget expenditures, including: Physical culture and sports C080 million rubles
30 City budget expenditures, including: Social policy C081 million rubles
31 City budget expenditures, including: Other C082 million rubles

7.8.4 Output data

id Name In calculations Unit of measure Comment
1 Current year year year Vector
2 Location oktmo string One value
3 Change in the number of public transport trips (GIH) C1212 % Vector
4 Percentage of additional trips associated with a change in the type of transport (car to public transport) (GIH) C1215 % Vector
5 Benefit from time savings on a public transport trip (GIH) C1216 million rubles Vector
6 Benefit from time savings on a personal transport trip (GIH) C1231 million rubles Vector
7 Savings in vehicle operating costs (GIH) C1233 million rubles Vector
8 Savings from road safety (GIH) C1244 million rubles Vector
9 Savings from improving air quality (GIH) C1245 million rubles Vector
10 Savings from noise reduction (GIH) C1246 million rubles Vector
11 Savings from reduction of \(CO_{2}\) level (GIH) C1247 million rubles Vector
12 Investments in the transport sector (GIH) C1251 million rubles Vector
13 Share of public transport in the total passenger traffic C1255 \(\%\) Vector
14 Income from ticket sales (GIH) C1266 million rubles Vector
15 Non-fare income (GIH) C1267 million rubles Vector
16 Capital expenditures (GIH) C1268 million rubles Vector
17 Operating expenditures (GIH) C1269 million rubles Vector
18 Volume of damage to the environment and ecosystem from the construction or reconstruction of road infrastructure (GIH) C1272 million rubles Vector
19 Benefit from walking (GIH) C1273 million rubles Vector
20 Benefit from cycling (GIH) C1274 million rubles Vector
21 Savings from reduction of crowding (GIH) C1289 million rubles Vector
22 Costs for construction or reconstruction of a road (GIH) C1292 million rubles Vector
23 Net profit of the project (GIH) C1293 million rubles Vector
24 Share of personal transport in the total passenger traffic C1294 % Vector
25 Variable costs of the project (GIH) C1295 million rubles Vector
26 Fixed costs of the project (GIH) C1296 million rubles Vector
27 Project income (GIH) C1297 million rubles Vector
28 Total income (GIH) C1270 million rubles Value
29 Total expenditures (GIH) C1271 million rubles Value
30 NPV (Net present value) C913 million rubles Value
31 IRR (Internal Rate of Return) C914 % Value
32 Regulatory payback period of capital investments C1190 year Value
33 Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) C1275 rubles Value
34 ERR - Economic Rate of Return (GIH) C1276 % Value
35 Multiplier: Time savings on a public transport trip (in vehicle and waiting) C1277 rubles per 1 ruble Value
36 Multiplier: Time savings on a car trip C1278 rubles per 1 ruble Value
37 Multiplier: Savings in car operating costs C1279 rubles per 1 ruble Value
38 Multiplier: Road safety C1280 rubles per 1 ruble Value
39 Multiplier: Improving air quality C1281 rubles per 1 ruble Value
40 Multiplier: Reduction of \(CO_{2}\) level C1282 rubles per 1 ruble Value
41 Multiplier: No noise C1283 rubles per 1 ruble Value
42 Multiplier: Walking C1284 rubles per 1 ruble Value
43 Multiplier: Cycling C1285 rubles per 1 ruble Value
44 Multiplier: Reduction of people in transport C1368 rubles per 1 ruble Value

The output data is calculated using the following formulas:

  • Change in the number of public transport trips (GIH), %

\[ C1212=(\frac{C1214}{C1214\_base} - 1)*100 \ \ (1) \]

  • Percentage of additional trips associated with a change in the type of transport (car to public transport) (GIH), %

\[ C1215=(-0.0289*transport\_mode+0.0064*\log(C1213/C1214)+\\+0.016*C1197+0.4444+suburban\_city\_coef)*100 \ \ (2) \]

  • Benefit from time savings on a public transport trip (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1216=(C1228\_base - C1228) + ((C1227\_base - C1227) / 60 * 2)) * \\ *(C1214\_base + (C1214 - C1214\_base) * 0.5) * BUS\_CAPACITY * C1230 / 1000000 \ \ (3) \] where \(BUS\_CAPACITY\) - average bus capacity

  • Benefit from time savings on a personal transport trip (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1231=(C1229\_base - C1229) * (C1213\_base + (C1213 - C1213\_base) * 0.5) *\\* MEAN\_CAR\_PASS * C1230 / 1000000 \ \ (4) \] where \(MEAN\_CAR\_PASS\) - average car capacity

  • Savings in vehicle operating costs (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1233=C1232*C1243 \ \ (5) \]

  • Savings from road safety (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1244=C1235*C1243 \ \ (6) \]

  • Savings from improving air quality (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1245=C1237*C1243 \ \ (7) \]

  • Savings from noise reduction (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1246=C1239*C1243 \ \ (8) \]

  • Savings from reduction of \(CO_{2}\) level (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1247=C1241*C1243 \ \ (9) \]

  • Income from ticket sales (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1266=C1297*(TICKET\_SHARE/100) \ \ (10) \] where \(TICKET\_SHARE\) - share of revenue from ticket sales

  • Non-fare income (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1267=C1297 * (1 - TICKET\_SHARE/100) \ \ (11) \]

  • Capital expenditures (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1268=C1251+C1292 \ \ (12) \]

  • Operating expenditures (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1269=C1206 - C1206\_base \ \ (13) \]

  • Volume of damage to the environment and ecosystem from the construction or reconstruction of road infrastructure (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1272= \begin{cases} C1286 / 1000000 * С1257, & C1256 = 1, \\ C1286 / 1000000 * C1257, & C1256 = 2, \\ 0, & C1256 = 3 \end{cases} \ \ (14) \]

  • Benefit from walking (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1273=C1287*C1253/1000000 \ \ (15) \]

  • Benefit from cycling (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1274=C1288*C1254/1000000 \ \ (16) \]

  • Savings from reduction of crowding (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1289=((base\_crowding-alt\_crowding) * peak\_proportion)*C1216 \ \ (17) \]

  • Costs for construction or reconstruction of a road (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1292= \begin{cases} C1257 * road\_lanes * C1290, & С1256 = 1, \\ C1257 * road\_lanes * C1291, & С1256 = 2, \\ 0, & С1256 = 3 \end{cases} \ \ (18) \]

where \(road\_lanes\) - number of lanes on the road

  • Net profit of the project (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1293=C1297 - C1269 - C1292 \ \ (19) \]

  • Variable costs of the project (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1295=C1204 - C1204\_base \ \ (20) \]

  • Fixed costs of the project (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1296=C1207 - C1207\_base \ \ (21) \]

  • Project income (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1297=C1208 - C1208\_base \ \ (22) \]

  • Total income (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1270=\sum_{i=year\_st}^{year\_end\_eval}C1297_{i} \ \ (23) \]

  • Total expenditures (GIH), million rubles

\[ C1271=C1269+C1268 \ \ (24) \]

  • Regulatory payback period of capital investments, year

\[ C1190=((C1268+C1296)/(C1297-C1295))*(year\_end\_eval-year\_st) \ \ (25) \]

  • Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), rubles

\[ C1275=(C1216+C1231+C1233+C1244+C1245+C1246+\\+C1247+C1289+C1273+C1274)/(C1268+ C1269) \ \ (26) \]

  • Multiplier: Time savings on a public transport trip (in vehicle and waiting), rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1277=C1216/C1271 \ \ (27) \]

  • Multiplier: Time savings on a car trip, rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1278=C1231/C1271 \ \ (28) \]

  • Multiplier: Savings in car operating costs, rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1279=C1233/C1271 \ \ (29) \]

  • Multiplier: Road safety, rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1280=C1244/C1271 \ \ (30) \]

  • Multiplier: Improving air quality, rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1281=C1245/C1271 \ \ (31) \]

  • Multiplier: Reduction of \(CO_{2}\) level, rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1282=C1247/C1271 \ \ (32) \]

  • Multiplier: No noise, rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1283=C1246/C1271 \ \ (33) \]

  • Multiplier: Walking, rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1284=C1273/C1271 \ \ (34) \]

  • Multiplier: Cycling, rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1285=C1274/C1271 \ \ (35) \]

  • Multiplier: Reduction of people in transport, rubles per 1 ruble

\[ C1368=C1289/C1271 \ \ (36) \]

7.8.6 Requirements for model support and regularity of recalibration

The model contains a large number of variables, the updating of which should be carried out once a year, as statistical data are published.

7.8.7 Assumptions necessary for carrying out calculations

When using this Model, it must be taken into account that:

  • The Model, by its nature, is a representation and does not reflect reality in all aspects. In particular, the model contains simplified assumptions that may affect its ability to reflect actual results. As a general limitation of the models, the projections presented are likely to differ from actual results, and these differences may be material.
  • The Model is limited by the mathematical rules and assumptions set out in the specification and included in the model.

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Back to chapter start

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