1 Digital Twin Open book

The Digital Twin (DT) open book represents the experience in developing systems of management decision-making support in the field of socio-economic development of territories (regions, cities, municipalities, and agglomerations), which was gained by the staff of the Digital Twin company from 2015 to the present day.

The purpose of Digital Twin is to support management decision-making in order to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of its core activities.

The Digital Twin company provides services for:

subscription to historical and scenario-forecast data on the socio-economic development of territories
development of methodological, software, information, and analytical support
improvement of a management decision-making system

Digital Twin is made up of a team of specialists in applied mathematics, economics, engineering disciplines, programming, system analysis, and project management, facilitating the development of fundamentally new, high-precision tools for government decision support.

Contact with the Founder & CEO of Digital Twin: Sergey Gumerov The official web-site the-digital-twin.com The City digital twin service dtwin.city

1.1 Company projects

The DT team has participated in the implementation of the following projects:

TEB (2022) – development of multi-level energy balance for 108 countries, 85 regions & 2,300 municipalities for energy investment decision support
GeoVEB (2020-current) – methodological, mathematical, and information support for assessing the impact of investment projects on the social and economic development of cities
Intersectoral balance (2015-2019) of the utility infrastructure and energy systems of St. Petersburg (monitoring, diagnostics, and impact assessment system)
Transport and economic balance of St. Petersburg (2015-2019)
Intrasectoral balances (2015-2018) of water supply, sewerage, electricity, and heat supply (monitoring, diagnostics, and impact assessment system)
Risk monitoring system (2017), fulfillment of obligations during construction using budget funds
System for supporting the adoption of tariff balance, industry, and investment decisions in the energy sector and housing and communal services (2015-2019)
System for diagnosing and preventing accidents in residential buildings (2018)
System for monitoring the technical condition of oil-trunk pipelines and oil product pipelines, the main gas transportation system of the Russian Federation (2005-2015).

1.2 Competencies

The basic know-how of the DT team is showcased in the methodology of applied mathematical modeling and analysis, implemented in the form of the City Digital Twin estimation and analytical platform, which provides monitoring, modeling, forecasting, and assessment of the impact of government decisions and external factors.

The core competencies of the team are:

forecasts of socio-economic and sectoral development
socio-economic substantiation of plans and programs for the development of territories, based on the actual and forecasted state of the territory and its environment
assessment and forecast of supply and demand, consumption and production in the short, medium, and long term
intersectoral and interterritorial balances of territories for the actual and planned periods
models of intrasectoral balances (energy and utilities, housing, transport, and construction) in physical, energy, and financial measures for assessment, scenario-based analysis, and optimal planning of the development of individual sectors of the economy of the territory
production capacities analysis and planning
reliability and safety management (risk monitoring, evaluation, analysis, and management of technical, economic, social, and environmental factors)
the technical condition of infrastructure monitoring, prediction, and management
capital investments assessment and planning
price and tariff regulation
industry and territorial planning documents
investment program preparation, justification, and evaluation

1.3 Proof of solution concept

1.4 Models under development

The Digital Twin team conducts its own scientific and technical activities to develop and improve mathematical models of social, economic, and technical systems.

1.4.1 Macroeconomic models

1.4.1.2 Demographic model

Purpose. Forecasting population dynamics, fertility, mortality, migration flows, age and gender structure, and life expectancy.

Effect. Improving the objectivity and integrity of strategic and investment planning.

Users. Investment banks, developers, regional governments, and municipal administrations.

Initial data. Retrospective and forecast of demographic indicators.

1.4.2 Interindustry and sectoral models

1.4.2.1 Interindustry balance model and supply-demand models

Purpose. Assessment of deficits-surpluses, supply and demand, export-import, input-output, capacity-load, efficiency, and effectiveness of state regulation and measures.

Effect. Improving the effectiveness of production and investment programs.

Users. Investment banks, developers, regional governments, and municipal administrations.

Initial data. Retrospective and forecast of socio-economic indicators (population, infrastructure, production, energy supply, and ecology). Parameters of large, promising investment projects. Comprehensive development programs of the city.

1.4.2.2 Agglomeration model. Model of interterritorial balances

Purpose. Assessment of commuting, workload, and demand for infrastructure, formation of plans for the development of transport systems.

Effect. Improving the effectiveness of measures and programs for the development of urban infrastructure, taking into account the mutual influence of settlements.

Initial data. Retrospective and forecast of socio-economic indicators (population, infrastructure, production, energy supply, ecology). Parameters of large, promising investment projects. Comprehensive development programs of the city.

1.4.2.3 Transport and economic balance

Purpose. Assessment and forecast of the state of the transport sector. Determination of directions for increasing the economic efficiency of the public transport sector. Substantiation of the parameters of transport reform and management decisions.

Effect. Increasing revenue from passengers. Reduction of unit costs for ensuring a given level of transport accessibility. Increasing the investment attractiveness of the industry.

Initial data. A master plan of the territory. Indicators of socio-economic development. Territory planning projects and road network schemes. Routes and timetables for the movement of public transport. Reports on tariff and balance decisions, balance sheets, reports, and plans on investment and production programs of resource-supplying organizations. Information on retrospective and prospective budget subsidies.

1.4.2.4 Fuel and energy balance

Purpose. Assessment and forecast of demand and supply of fuel and energy resources. Determination of directions for increasing the economic efficiency of the sphere. Substantiation of regulation parameters and long-term investment planning.

Effect. Reducing the energy intensity of the economy. Management of the energy security of the economy and the economic efficiency of the energy sector.

Users. Regulators of the fuel and energy sector.

1.4.2.5 Identification, analysis, and prevention of the causes of receivables for the consumption of utilities and services.

Purpose. Quantitative assessment of the contribution of individual reasons for the formation of receivables to suppliers of utility and energy resources.

Effect. Decrease in the growth rate of receivables.

Users. City departments of the Fuel and Energy Economy. Department of housing and utility services. Resource-supplying organizations.

Initial data. The structure and volume of monthly charges and payments for utilities and services, sorted by personal accounts linked to the Federal Information Address System. Data of resource supplying organizations on the structure and volumes of monthly production and sale of utility and energy resources by the consumer with reference to the Federal Information Address System.

1.4.2.6 Estimation, assessment, and analysis of the risks of resource supply of territories

Purpose. Distribution of risks of guaranteed heat supply and probable loss of resources in water supply, sewerage, and heat supply systems.

Effect. Increasing the validity and reducing the unit costs of resource-supplying organizations.

Users. Resource supplying organizations

Initial data. Digital models of heat supply, water supply, and sanitation schemes. Statistics on accidents, technological violations, identified defects, and technological and emergency interruptions of resource supply, with reference to sections of resource supply networks. Daily, monthly and annual graphs of thermal and hydraulic loads, volumes of production, transportation, and sale of thermal energy, cold and hot water, coolant, wastewater, and incinerated sludge.

1.4.3 Technological and technical models

1.4.3.1 Digital model of heat supply, water supply, and sewerage

Purpose

Development of optimal thermal and hydrodynamic regimes
Development of optimal production and investment programs
Substantiation of parameters for adjusting sectoral schemes

Effect. Reducing fuel and energy costs to ensure the desired temperature of heated rooms.

Users. Department of Energy. Heat supply and water supply organizations.

Initial data. Hourly, daily, and monthly volumes of consumption of fuel and energy resources, supply of thermal energy from collectors, volumes of general house consumption of thermal energy, hot and cold water, and volumes of cold water make-up. Electronic scheme of heat supply, water supply, and sewerage.

1.4.3.2 Assessment, analysis, and forecast of the place and time of pipeline destruction

Purpose. Element-by-element assessment of the terms and conditions for the safe operation of sections of main, distribution, and house pipelines of water supply, sanitation, heat supply, and gas supply systems

Effect. Reducing the accident rate and unit cost of ownership of pipeline networks.

Users. Operating organizations

Initial data. Access to wells and thermal chambers, entrances of apartment houses for instrumental control. The project, executive, and operational documentation. Information on the results of organizational and technical measures.

1.4.3.3 Optimization of groupage cargo transportation schedules

Purpose. Optimization of groupage cargo transportation schedules.

Effect. Reducing costs, with given limits on delivery time.

Users. Transport organizations.

Initial data. Retrospective information on the volume and structure of shipped goods, sorted by collection points. The cost of delivery and main transportation of goods.

Updated by 22.03.2023

City Digital Twin

Body of knowledge for model-based decision support